Statement from Keylink (my main supplier) 

We also want to be upfront in telling you that stock availability from all manufacturers continues to be very restricted. As a result of this, we are really sorry but we cannot offer you the opportunity to “stock up” as we would usually advise you to do! 

Chocolate Price Increases 

The prices of Callebaut “core” grades will be going up as below: 

• SCC1501 (811 dark) up by 39.9% to £14.84/kg 

• SCC1507 (70% dark) up by 40.4% to £15.93/kg 

• SCC1521 (823 milk) up by 30.3% to £15.22/kg 

• SCC1541 (W2 white) up by 27.9% to £15.20/kg 

These are admittedly very high increases coming on the back of the recent increase in May, but as things stand we are hopeful that Callebaut should not need to implement any further price changes before 2025. 

If we compare these new prices with those of a year ago from July 2023, we see that dark chocolates have gone up by around 80% and milk and white by around 60%. Given that cocoa, the main ingredient, has gone up by 170% over the same period, the proposed increases are not actually out of line, especially in the case of dark chocolate grades with higher cocoa solids.  

All price increases will take effect from Monday 1^st July 2024. 

Stock Availability 

We know that the recent huge increase in cocoa prices has been primarily driven by severe crop shortages in Ivory Coast and Ghana. The poor crop was caused by adverse weather driven by a strong El Nino effect, lower yields, deforestation and disease, amongst other things. 

The bottom line is that the 2023/24 main crop harvest of cocoa beans was around 11-12% short of global demand, by most counts. This has led to a major reduction in the global stock levels of beans, restricted supplies and a very tight cocoa market. 

This global shortage of beans has translated into significant supply shortages of chocolate from all manufacturers, including rationing, since the spring. Unfortunately, both supply and lead times are likely to continue to be affected well into the autumn. 

So What Does This Mean for You? 

Whilst we will always do whatever we can to ensure good availability of all the grades we stock, rapidly changing prices and long lead-times mean that you may have to take a more flexible approach when sourcing your chocolate. If the brand/grade you normally buy is out of stock or has just become too expensive for you, then we would recommend you consider an equivalent or similar chocolate from another brand. 

As stockists of Barry Callebaut, Cacao Barry, Callebaut, Favorich, Luker, Stewart & Arnold, Valrhona, Vanova and Veliche, we will always have many alternatives for you to choose from! 

The Outlook for 2025 

Will chocolate prices come down or go up further in 2025? 

The simple fact is that everything will depend on the main 2024/25 crop, which will only start to be harvested from around November 2024. If demand remains unchanged, it is important that cocoa bean production gets back at least to the level of 2022/23, or around 5m tonnes per annum. Otherwise there would be another shortfall and in all probability, higher prices. 

On the other hand, it is quite likely that the current high prices may actually reduce the overall demand for chocolate as producers either sell less or move to using coatings and other products containing cocoa butter equivalents (CBEs). Reduced demand would mean that the 2024/25 crop doesn’t need to climb all the way back to the previous year’s total, just most of the way.